Query proof
Recover a prediction market's full price path with SQL
A Scry query pattern for reconstructing a Manifold market's probability history bet by bet, from the per-bet prob_before and prob_after fields.
Answer shape
Every Manifold bet carries the market probability before and after it, so one bounded query returns the full price path of a question.
Sources
- Manifold
Methods
- source-native SQL
- per-bet state fields
- time series
SQL
Run this through POST /v1/scry/query after inspecting GET /v1/scry/schema for current live fields.
SELECT created_at_source, prob_before, prob_after, amount, outcome FROM manifold.bets WHERE contract_id = 'RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM' -- Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? AND is_redemption = 0 ORDER BY created_at_source LIMIT 10000;